What the Yield Curve Is Telling Real Estate

The curve has spent two years sending mixed signals, and real estate has spent two years over-interpreting each wiggle. Stepping back, the message is steadier than the headlines.

Cost of Capital, Not Prophecy

For property, the curve matters less as a recession oracle and more as the price of the debt you will actually sign. Underwrite to where the curve says financing clears, not to where you wish it would.

The deals that work in this environment are the ones whose business plan does not require the curve to cooperate.